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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest shock.

However the latest competition is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still